Prepayment rates are expected to be higher than in previous refinance cycles because lenders have bumped up spending on technology to improve recapture rates and loan originators are eagerly anticipating increasing their volume.
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Bose George said, "Given the modest scale of the announced pilot program, there should be no meaningful impact on the mortgage market."
Most of the increase in Freddie buybacks in the first quarter of this year came from loans that were securitized in 2023, which totaled $219.1 million and represented 65.8% of Freddie repurchases in early 2024.
An analysis by Inside Mortgage Finance found that only 1.5% of purchase mortgages in agency mortgage-backed securities issued in 2023 carried a combined loan-to-value ratio greater than 97%.