If commercial lending rates stay about where they are now, a quarter of loans that expire within the next year will need to either bring in 50% more income than they are currently or reduce their debt by a third.
Super-senior classes of conduit CMBS transactions should be resilient if office loan values fall, but the lower end of the capital stack may not hold up as well, according to S&P Global Ratings.
Agency single-family MBS production continued to erode in the third quarter despite a modest pickup in purchase loans. Meanwhile, issuance fell sharply in the commercial MBS and ABS markets. (Includes three data charts.)
Initial estimates on Hurricane Ian-related losses; Biden administration limits student loan forgiveness on loans in ABS; Credit Suisse’s financial difficulties trickle down to an ABS.
JPMorgan Chase continued to hold the biggest portfolio of MBS/ABS in trading accounts. Bank holding companies posted a 14.9% increase in agency MBS held in trading accounts. (Includes data chart.)
A lawsuit filed by New York’s attorney general against Donald Trump put a spotlight on valuation practices for commercial properties. Commercial MBS participants note that protections are in place regarding potentially inflated appraisals.
DBRS released proposed updates to its North American CMBS Insight Model and multi-borrower rating methodology, and Moody’s proposed revisions to its SFR securitization loan-level legal analysis framework and added transparency on analysis of transaction-level legal risks.
Office property occupancy still hasn’t recovered from the pandemic, putting downward pressure on valuations and the availability of liquidity for both CMBS and CRE borrowers.