Analysts estimate that GSE forbearance programs will ultimately cost servicers between $80 billion and $150 billion in advances and escrow payments, bolstering the theory that only the Federal Reserve has the wherewithal to provide interim financing.
SOFR-linked debt is vulnerable to much higher rate volatility than those referencing LIBOR. This risk was highlighted last month when surging repo rates sent SOFR briefly to a record 5.25%.
When the Federal Reserve has finally “normalized” its balance sheet, allowing much of the $4.25 trillion in Treasuries and agency securities that it acquired through quantitative easing to gradually run off, there will still be as much as $1 trillion on the ledger, according to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last week.
After a year and a half of following its carefully scripted plan to normalize its balance sheet and return to good, old-fashioned monetary policy, the Federal Reserve muddied the waters at last week’s meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee.