In exploring how to attract more private capital into the housing finance system, policymakers should permit the jumbo mortgage market to stand on its own absent a government guaranty and make any future government backing explicit, experts told members of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Securities, Insurance and Investment this week. Given that loans over the old $417,000 conforming limit account for a quarter of the dollar volume of mortgages per year, a slow and measured hand off of this segment to private capital is a low-maintenance way to reduce the government’s mortgage footprint, according to Mark Willis, resident research fellow at the New York University Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy. Inside Mortgage Finance estimates that loans exceeding $417,000 accounted for 16.8 percent of originations in 2012. “Opening up the market above $417,000 should provide...

Officials at Redwood Trust suggest that the change in pricing for AAA tranches on new non-agency MBS in recent months has been driven by supply and demand, not concerns about the quality of issuance. “The market had come too far, too fast, and the supply and demand imbalance initiated a correction,” Redwood said. The premium on Redwood’s latest transaction was about 1.75 percentage points above an interest rate benchmark, resulting in a 2.59 percent premium for investors. Redwood said deals it issued in January sold with premiums as low as 97 basis points with yields of less than 200 bps for investors. The real estate investment trust said...

As more firms contemplate issuing jumbo MBS, there are growing concerns that there could be a few speed bumps along the way, namely rising whole loan prices, and an increase in the cost of money for investors that use swaps to fund their purchases of the AAA-rated tranches. The increase in whole loan prices is less of a concern, because it was somewhat anticipated given the “hot” nature of the market. Over the past few months, prices for jumbo whole loans have risen to as high as 103, compared to 101 and 102 last year. Craig Cole, a jumbo consultant and a former top production manager at Union Bank, San Francisco, told...

Issuance of non-agency jumbo mortgage-backed securities continues to increase along with the number of issuers participating in the market. Issuers acknowledge that spreads on AAA non-agency MBS are widening, causing margins to decline, but they suggest that a significant increase in non-agency MBS production will help tighten spreads, benefitting issuers. Credit Suisse issued its third non-agency jumbo MBS of the year this week. The $393.77 million deal received AAA ratings from DBRS and ...

While originations included in non-agency jumbo mortgage-backed securities in recent years have been of high-quality, significant differences exist among originators, according to a new analysis by Inside Nonconforming Markets. The average credit score on mortgages included in Redwood Trust’s non-agency jumbo MBS from 2011 through the first quarter of this year was 771.2, largely driven by First Republic Bank, which accounted for 47.0 percent of originations securitized by Redwood ... [Includes two data charts]

“It’s not a money problem, there’s plenty of money out there,” Martin Hughes, president and CEO of Redwood Trust, said last week at a hearing by the House Financial Services Committee. “The difficulty now is the uncertainty of investors that need to be waved back into the water.” Hughes said non-agency mortgage-backed security issuers need to make adjustments for investors. “I believe we need to first address investors’ demands for better risk mitigation, transparency, and alignment of interests ...

Wall Street has unveiled policy proposals calling for premium and guaranty fee adjustments and reduced loan limits for FHA and the government-sponsored enterprises to jump start the return of private capital to the U.S. housing market. The American Securitization Forum said the current level of government activity in the mortgage market is neither sustainable nor advisable. The government, through FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, directly or indirectly guarantees 90 to 95 percent of new mortgage originations in the country, the trade association said. While everyone agrees the government’s role in housing should be reduced over the long term, there is ...

“The private-label market is showing new signs of life,” according to Standard & Poor’s, which predicted that banks are likely to increase their securitization of jumbo mortgages. In a report released late last week, S&P projected $14 billion in non-agency jumbo MBS in 2013. Redwood alone set a goal of issuing $7 billion in non-agency MBS this year and is on pace to exceed that volume, helped by a pending $425 million deal, its sixth of the year. PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust is also aiming to issue a non-agency jumbo MBS in the Redwood mold in the third quarter of 2013. JPMorgan Chase and EverBank Financial issued...[Includes one data chart]

The National Association of Insurance Commissioners recently proposed changes to modeling values of insurance company holdings of non-agency MBS and commercial MBS. The proposal could increase loss forecasts and prompt some sales of the securities, according to analysts. The NAIC proposed using the Treasury strip curve as the discount rate in determining the net-present value of expected loss for modeled securities, as opposed to using each security’s coupon rate to determine expected losses. The standard-setting group governed by state insurance regulators noted that the Treasury strip curve is a risk-free curve. “Using a consistent risk-free rate for all modeled securities in calculating the expected loss reflects...

Moody’s Investors Service has come up with a monitoring approach to evaluating “tail risk” in non-agency MBS that pay scheduled principal and prepayments to the securities on a pro-rata basis and assessing the adequacy of the credit enhancement available to the rated securities. Tail risk is what might be described as the “end of life” risk of a disproportionately large loss (based on current balance of the pool) on the underlying pool at the end of a transaction’s term when few loans remain in the pool and credit enhancements, although high in percentage terms, may be very low in dollar terms. The proposed change in approach at Moody’s will mostly affect...