What if the U.S. government actually defaults on its debt – what would that do to the value of MBS and Treasuries held on the balance sheet of banks? You may not want to know the answer.
A steady decline in single-family agency MBS issuance led to a 13.8 percent decline in MBS and ABS production during the third quarter of 2013, according to a new Inside MBS & ABS analysis. A total of $388.53 billion of single-family MBS were issued during the third quarter, a 15.7 percent drop from the previous three-month period. It marked the lowest quarterly output for single-family MBS since the second quarter of last year, although year-to-date production was still up 9.0 percent from the first nine months of 2012. Every component in the residential MBS market was...[Includes three data pages]
Reforms seen in the new era of non-agency jumbo MBS issuance aren’t enough to prompt significant investor participation, according to John Gidman, president of the Association of Institutional Investors. At a hearing this week by the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, Gidman and others called for a number of changes to the non-agency market. “The fundamental structural and process weaknesses for non-agency residential MBS securitization have not been fixed in the current private-label securities market,” Gidman said. “The issuance process itself is very opaque. Ratings continue to be shopped, issuers are still incentivized to water down representations and warranties, and continued variability in structures and documentation make the market more challenging for investors and raise the costs of funding.” He acknowledged...
Issuance from new participants in the non-agency jumbo mortgage-backed security market wasn’t enough to offset reduced activity by Redwood Trust and others in the third quarter of 2013, according to a new ranking and analysis by Inside Nonconforming Markets. Issuance of jumbo MBS slowed particularly in September, as Shellpoint Partners delayed its planned security and PennyMac Corp. made changes to attract investors. A total of $3.94 billion in non-agency jumbo MBS was issued in the third quarter, a 9.1 percent decline from the previous quarter and about level with the issuance seen in the first three months of 2013. Redwood and Credit Suisse, the jumbo MBS sector’s two biggest players, slowed...[Includes one data chart]
Officials at Redwood Trust are calling for a gradual decline in conforming loan limits as opposed to an immediate repeal of the high-cost agency loan limits. Martin Hughes, CEO and director of the real estate investment trust, said market disruption due to a decline in loan limits is unlikely while non-agency mortgage-backed security investors said additional reforms are necessary. “If the conforming loan limits are reduced, I believe the private market would aggressively compete for those loans that exceed the new limit without any market disruption,” Hughes wrote in testimony this week for a hearing by the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs. He drew a parallel to the reduction of the high-cost loan limit in 2012 from $729,750 to $625,500. A gradual decline in the high-cost loan limit would be...
Jumbo mortgage-backed security structures used by Redwood Trust, PennyMac Corp., and others pose risks for investors, according to Moody’s Investors Service, although the rating service said bonds will only incur losses in “low-probability scenarios.” Moody’s raised concerns about features that go beyond the simple senior-subordinate structures that have been most common since the restart of the non-agency MBS market. Those features include...
While the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has encouraged originations of non-qualified mortgages, industry analysts predict that such originations will begin slowly. Even before the QM and risk-retention requirements are implemented for non-qualified residential mortgages, few lenders have been willing to offer subprime mortgages. Originations of subprime mortgages will likely be non-QMs due to the higher interestrates required for subprime borrowers. According to a survey completed by Zillow, borrowers with credit scores under 620 who requested a quote for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage were...
The creation of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund could grease the skids for an end to the conservatorships of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
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