Economists caution that forecasts for interest rates on mortgages come with more uncertainty than usual due to Trump administration policies on tariffs and other issues.
Originations of first liens increased slightly in the fourth quarter. For the full year, production was up nearly 15% compared with 2023 as lower interest rates helped to boost lending. (Includes two data tables.)
Following a strong jobs report, many economists now expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged. Also, concerns about policies from the Trump administration are helping to drive up the 10-year Treasury rate.
The regulator estimates that the move will prompt a jump in mortgage originations. The rule is largely unchanged from an earlier proposal despite concerns raised by mortgage companies.
After noting a decline in market share during the second quarter, nonbanks increased their share of originations to 65.5% in the third quarter. The increase was driven by the largest nonbanks.
Endorsement activity involving traditional HECMs declined slightly and production of HECMs for home purchase increased during the third quarter. Mutual of Omaha remained the top HECM lender. (Includes three data tables.)