In mid-December, MBA was projecting interest rates would hold at 6.4% throughout 2026. However, MBA now anticipates the average rate will be 6.1% in the first quarter and hold at that level through the year.
President Trump’s announcement that the GSEs will buy $200 billion of agency MBS prompted mortgage spreads to tighten by about 20 basis points and some lenders to offer mortgages below 6.00%.
Fed Chairman Powell said the investigation is a pretext and the real crux is the Fed's refusal to comply with President Trump's calls to lower interest rates.
Trade groups representing smaller lenders called on the Trump administration to prompt the GSEs to increase their holdings of MBS as a way to reduce mortgage rates.
Economists at Fannie Mae and the MBA differ on how low interest rates on mortgages will go next year. Fannie is also more optimistic about the outlook for unemployment.
The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points this week and further cuts are expected. Even if interest rates on mortgages don’t come down much more, demand for loans is expected to increase.