For several quarters now, commercial banks have been hanging onto underwater non-QMs originated by their warehouse clients because a sale or securitization would blow a hole in the originator’s financial hull. But one of these days, the situation will come to a head, if it hasn’t already.
The FHFA will significantly reduce a controversial fee for comingled securities in UMBS; no consistent trend in delinquencies and losses across MBS and ABS in December; term SOFR not an option as GSEs leave LIBOR behind.
Expanded-credit MBS issuance declined by nearly 50% in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter. Prime MBS issuance fared even worse, essentially freezing during the final months of the year. (Includes data chart.)
Non-agency MBS issuance perked up in early January as investor demand improved. Redwood Trust offered a jumbo MBS after a year-long lull in issuance and expanded-credit MBS issuers priced deals at tightening spreads.
The impairment rate on securitized non-QMs posted its largest one-month jump in November since the early days of the pandemic. Hurricane Ian was a factor.
Prices on non-agency MBS took such a hit in 2022 that the market is now gaining popularity with investors, even with the threat of a recession. Still, new issuance in 2023 is expected to come in lower on an annual basis.